ES Futures Daily Plan · Aug 10, 2026
Overnight built value above Friday's VAH and gave it back before the open; 7791.75 settles which read is right.
ES · Sep '26 (ESU6) · data through 07:30 CT
Overnight 7763 – 7796.25 (33.25 pts) · last 7778.5 · volume 102,198
Gap -1.25 vs settle: modest against yesterday's 43.25-pt range · sitting within prior value · ON VPOC 7791.75
The line
Friday closed on its high and the overnight extended the move, then handed the extension back in the three hours before the open. The question today is whether the night's volume node at 7791.75 gets reclaimed or abandoned. A reader who knows how the first hour treats that price knows the rest.
Levels
Working:
7796.25 · overnight high
7791.75 · overnight VPOC
7781.00 · prior VAH
7761.00 · prior VAL
7750.00 · Aug 4–5 balance VAL
Background:
7819.00 · Aug 4–5 balance VAH
7777.00 · prior POC
7737.75 · untested POC, Aug 6
7611.75 · 20-day composite VAH
Yesterday
Friday opened above prior value, cleared the Aug 6 VAH at 7750.75, and confirmed acceptance with thirty minutes of trade above it. Price fell back inside value once before the level took hold. The initial balance broke higher and the VPOC migrated up in two eight-point steps to settle at 7777.00. Value is narrow for 915k contracts, a tight upper-end distribution rather than an extension. Friday's letter expected an open above value and called acceptance above 7750.75 with high confidence. Both landed, though the reentry in between made it less clean than that confidence implied.
The delta profile carries the more interesting story. After the opening half hour's buying, nine consecutive thirty-minute bars printed net selling while price refused to leave a 43-point band. Heaviest net selling sat at 7774.00, just under the POC. Heaviest net buying sat at 7762.00, right on the base of value. Sellers worked the top of value all session and got absorbed; the last hour took price back to the high.
Overnight
The night is a ladder, not an impulse. From the Sunday reopen price stepped up a few points per bar on a fraction of Friday's volume, topping at 7796.25 around 02:30 CT. Value built there, and the overnight VPOC settled 10.75 pts above Friday's VAH. Then from 06:00 CT the three largest bars of the entire night all traded lower, back through 7781.00 and into Friday's value area.
That ordering matters. The advance came on thin participation and the retreat came on the night's real volume. Inventory into the open reads mixed rather than one-sided, and price sits inside prior value with a negligible gap to settle. A probe that found no business, then, rather than acceptance at higher prices.
Structure
Mid-July value clustered near 7570 to 7620 and held for about a week. It gave way, and the last stretch of July rebuilt a three-session balance at 7424.25 to 7460.25. That balance broke upward on Aug 3, and Aug 4–5 covered more than 160 pts before settling into a two-day balance between 7750.00 and 7819.00.
Every session since has traded inside that shelf. Aug 6 built a tight one-day area whose POC at 7737.75 has never been retested. Friday rebuilt value at the upper end of it. The market is digesting inside the range its own expansion created, and the overnight did not change that.
Above sits the shelf ceiling at 7819.00, with thin trade beyond it. Below sits the floor at 7750.00, then the unfinished business at 7737.75. Longer term price remains far clear of the 20-day value area, which tops at 7611.75.
What options price
The band priced for today reaches the shelf floor at 7750.00 and stops well short of the ceiling. Both the overnight high and the overnight VPOC sit comfortably inside it, which is another way of saying the night moved nothing that a routine session cannot undo. Tagging 7819.00 requires an unusual day. The untested 7737.75 sits below the band entirely and is a two-session objective at this pricing. Term structure across the next fortnight is flat, with the loudest window a month out.
The read
I favor rotation inside the shelf, between the floor at 7750.00 and the overnight node, with 7791.75 as the pivot the day trades against. The grounding is the sequence rather than the level: the night built its value above Friday's VAH and then spent its heaviest bars leaving it, which puts whoever paid up above 7791.75 holding inventory into an open below them. Absorption at the top of Friday's value points the same way.
Opening inside prior value on a negligible gap favors a responsive open, and the shape that follows is a balancing session with value overlapping Friday's. The extension attempt, if it comes, comes early.
The early tell is the first half hour's treatment of 7781.00 from below. A clean rejection there and the rotation toward 7761.00 and the floor is live for the session. Trade that holds above 7791.75 instead, and the lean is simply wrong.
What would change the read
Thirty minutes of accepted trade above 7791.75 turns the night's probe into a base and puts the 7819.00 ceiling in play. A break below 7750.00 that holds ends the shelf rotation altogether and opens the untested 7737.75.
All levels are computed as of the stated cutoff. This brief is educational market commentary, not investment advice or a recommendation. It does not consider any reader's financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance, and past patterns described here are not a guarantee of future results. Futures and options trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.