ES Futures Daily Plan · Aug 07, 2026
Overnight has climbed back into the Aug 4–5 value area it left yesterday; the question is whether 7750.75 holds as a floor.
ES · Sep '26 (ESU6) · data through 07:30 CT
Overnight 7725.5 – 7774.5 (49 pts) · last 7769 · volume 106,854
Gap +34.25 vs settle: large against yesterday's 44.25-pt range · sitting straddling prior value · ON VPOC 7755
The line
Yesterday's auction broke below the Aug 4–5 value area and built a tight shelf underneath it. Overnight has taken price back up into that old value, with the night's volume point of control settled above yesterday's value area high 7750.75 rather than merely poking through it. Today answers whether that reclaim is accepted, and 7750.75 is the level that settles it.
Levels
Working:
7750.75 · prior VAH
7745.75 · Aug 5 VAL
7765.75 · Aug 4–5 composite POC
7737.75 · prior POC
7728.00 · prior VAL
7786.00 · Aug 4 high
Background:
7795.75 · Aug 5 VAH
7819.00 · Aug 4–5 composite VAH
7724.25 · prior session low
7604.50 · 20-day composite VAH
Yesterday
A balancing day with the whole distribution sitting under the prior session's value. Price opened inside Aug 5's value area, failed to hold above it, and by the third hour had spent a full half hour below Aug 5's VAL 7745.75. That is acceptance, time traded beyond a level rather than a quick rejection of it, and it turned the day. The initial balance was narrow at 28.25 points and broke lower, after which the auction spent the afternoon rotating in a 23-point value area and closed a tick beneath its own point of control.
Yesterday's letter argued the move below 7745.75 would be rejected, with high confidence. It was not: the acceptance came instead, and the rest of the session traded under the level. The call for an open inside value was right, which is the smaller half of the read.
The day's net flow was negative, yet the heaviest selling sits at 7730 and the heaviest buying just eight points above it at 7738, inside the same shelf. Sellers pressed into the low end of value and did not get paid. The final half hour carried the session's second-largest volume with positive delta, which is what a reclaim attempt looks like before it happens.
Overnight
The night is a staircase, not a gap. From the early evening low near 7725.50, each block of bars grinds a few points higher, with the buying arriving in small consistent doses through the European hours and the largest bars in the last ninety minutes before this writing. Volume is 106,854 contracts, thin in absolute terms but concentrated on the advance rather than at the lows.
What matters is where the night's own point of control settled: above yesterday's value area high, not at it. Volume followed price higher, which is acceptance rather than a probe. The night's distribution now straddles yesterday's value, sitting on top of it with its centre of gravity in the lower reaches of Aug 4–5 value. Inventory into the open is mixed, roughly 71% of overnight trade above settle, so there is no one-sided position that has to be unwound at the bell.
Structure
The sequence is the story. Late July put in a lower balance around 7409 that held two sessions, then broke up hard: Jul 31, Aug 3, and Aug 4 each rebuilt value at a higher level with no overlap, four hundred points of migration in four sessions. That run stopped at the Aug 4–5 balance, value 7750.00 to 7819.00 with its point of control at 7765.75. Yesterday was the first session to reject that area, dropping out of it and building a one-day shelf below.
So the market sits in the seam. Above is the Aug 4–5 value area, which overnight has already re-entered from below, and its 7765.75 centre is the first real magnet inside it. Above that, the unfinished business is the Aug 4 high 7786.00 and then Aug 5's value area high. Below yesterday's shelf there is nothing but air down to the Jul 31 to Aug 3 rebuilds, and price remains well clear of the 20-day composite value area high 7604.50, out of longer-term balance to the upside.
What options price
The band priced for today reaches about 41 points either side of the reference, and it covers the working range comfortably: the Aug 4–5 point of control, the Aug 4 high, and Aug 5's value area high all sit inside it on the upside, with yesterday's value area low and session low inside it below. The top of the Aug 4–5 balance at 7819.00 is outside a normal day; getting there needs an unusual session or the week's later expirations, which price a wider reach. Nothing in today's read requires a move the options market is not already paying for.
The read
I favor rotation in the lower half of the Aug 4–5 value area, with 7750.75 working as the floor rather than the ceiling. The reasoning is the overnight point of control, which built above yesterday's value area high instead of stalling under it, and the delta pattern into yesterday's close where selling at the low end of the shelf was absorbed. Mixed inventory means the open does not carry a mechanical correction, so early trade should be read on its own merits.
The shape that fits is an open above value, a first probe back down toward 7750.75, and a hold there that lets the auction work toward 7765.75. Failure to break far below the open in the first hour would leave a normal variation day inside the reclaimed area. The highest-information early tell is the first thirty minutes' behaviour at 7750.75: rejection from above, meaning a quick return and a point of control that migrates higher, keeps the lean intact.
What beats it is time spent under 7745.75. That is the level that flipped yesterday's session, and acceptance back beneath it puts yesterday's point of control 7737.75 and then value area low 7728.00 in play, with the overnight reclaim recast as a failed probe.
What would change the read
A sustained half hour below 7745.75 with the point of control migrating down invalidates the lean and opens yesterday's value area low. On the other side, acceptance above the Aug 4 high 7786.00 says the Aug 4–5 balance is being reclaimed outright rather than rotated within, and the upper end of that area becomes the reference instead.
All levels are computed as of the stated cutoff. This brief is educational market commentary, not investment advice or a recommendation. It does not consider any reader's financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance, and past patterns described here are not a guarantee of future results. Futures and options trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.