ES Futures Daily Plan · Aug 04, 2026
Overnight built value above yesterday's high with inventory all long; the question is whether 7637.50 holds as support.
ES · Sep '26 (ESU6) · data through 08:30 CT
Overnight 7629 – 7666 (37 pts) · last 7657.5 · volume 212,454
Gap +29.25 vs settle: modest against yesterday's 95-pt range · sitting above prior value · ON VPOC 7644
The line
Yesterday's advance did not stop at the close. The overnight built its own point of control above prior VAH 7637.50, which turns that edge from resistance into the day's reference: hold it and the unfinished 7689.50 POC comes into view, lose it and the whole of yesterday's range is back in play. Acceptance below prior POC 7629.00 is what ends the higher read.
Levels
Working:
7666.00 · overnight high
7657.50 · overnight last
7644.00 · overnight VPOC
7637.50 · prior VAH
7629.00 · prior POC
7598.50 · prior VAL
Background:
7689.50 · untested POC, Jun 2
7576.25 · 20-day composite VAH
7542.75 · prior session low
7526.50 · Jul 31 POC
Yesterday
A trend day with almost no give. The open printed above Friday's value at 7545.75, and rather than correct back into it, the first 30 minutes ran nearly the whole initial balance in one bar. Acceptance above prior VAH 7540.00, half an hour of trade beyond the level, came early and was never revisited.
The profile that resulted is thin at the bottom and heavy at the top: the point of control settled at 7629.00, 30.50 pts above the value-area low, and the session closed inside the top shelf of its own distribution. That is the signature of an auction that spent the afternoon building a new base rather than rotating back to fair value. The 7620.00 and 7630.75 gaps in volume are the seams inside that upper shelf, useful only if price returns to test them.
My read into yesterday had the open-above-value and the acceptance right. It also called Friday's settle at 7519.25 a magnet, and that was wrong: the correction stalled 23.50 pts short and the auction resumed higher.
The delta is where the day earns respect. Net buying for the session was modest, and the single largest imbalance was selling into the 11:00 hour, right at the top of the range. Price gave back four points and closed near the highs anyway. Selling absorbed at the high, not rejection from it.
Overnight
The night has two impulses and a long quiet middle. The first came in the evening, a ten-point lift off yesterday's settle area on the largest positive delta of the early session. Then hours of drift in a four-point band around the overnight VPOC, which itself sits above yesterday's value-area high.
The second impulse is fresher, arriving in the last two hours before this letter with the night's heaviest volume behind it. Price marked the session high on that push. The dip at 01:30 into 7631.75 is the only real test of yesterday's upper shelf, and it was bought back within the hour.
Volume followed price rather than probing it: the overnight point of control sits 6.50 pts above prior VAH, which is acceptance, not an overnight excursion. The cost is inventory. Every tick of the night's balance is long into the open, which is the one condition arguing for an early corrective move regardless of the structural picture.
Structure
The sequence explains why this matters. Late July was a genuine balance: three sessions around 7447.00, then a two-day area near 7409.00, the low of the whole map. That base broke upward on July 31, and each session since has built value above the last without pausing to overlap. Yesterday's value area does not touch Friday's, which is why it stands alone as its own composite.
So the market has spent three sessions in vertical development, moving price rather than accepting it. There is no overhead balance to lean against between here and the untested June 2 point of control at 7689.50, 32.00 pts above the overnight last. Above that, thin air. Below, the structure is dense and rebuilt: yesterday's shelf into 7629.00, then the value-area low, then the July 31 area at 7526.50. Price is also clear of the 20-day composite value area, out of longer-term balance to the upside, which means the reference set that matters today is all short-dated.
What options price
The cone for today reaches a bit under 26 pts either side of the overnight last. That contains the overnight high, the overnight VPOC, prior VAH and prior POC: the entire rotation I care about fits inside a normal session. What does not fit is either extreme of the story. The 7689.50 POC sits beyond today's band and only comes inside the one-day window that expires tomorrow. A full rotation back to prior VAL 7598.50 needs the same. Neither requires a violent day, but both require a directional one rather than a digesting one.
The read
I favor rotation in the band between prior VAH and the overnight high, with the higher structure intact while 7629.00 goes untraded on a sustained basis. The case rests on where volume built overnight, above yesterday's value rather than merely probing it, and on the absorption at yesterday's highs: sellers had their best moment at the top of the range and got four points for it.
The inventory argues for patience in the first half hour. Of the mornings that opened with the overnight all one way, roughly a quarter had corrected that imbalance by the open and about a third by thirty minutes in. So the more common shape is an open that has not yet worked off its long inventory, and a first rotation lower that trades back toward prior VAH before the day chooses. That favors an open above value, an early probe down into the 7637.50 area, and a normal-variation-up day if that probe finds responsive buyers. If instead the open holds the overnight high and extends, the June 2 POC becomes the objective and needs more than a single session's priced reach to get there.
The tell I watch is the behaviour of that first probe. A dip into the upper shelf that spends less than 30 minutes below 7637.50 and returns keeps the lean; time accepted below it, with the point of control migrating down, says the overnight buyers were the last ones.
What would change the read
Thirty minutes of trade accepted below prior POC 7629.00, with value building beneath yesterday's shelf, turns this into a failed breakout and opens the value-area low. On the other side, acceptance above the overnight high without a corrective rotation first abandons the band entirely and makes 7689.50 the reference instead.
All levels are computed as of the stated cutoff. This brief is educational market commentary, not investment advice or a recommendation. It does not consider any reader's financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance, and past patterns described here are not a guarantee of future results. Futures and options trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.